Besides the world seeing an increasingly greater frequency of communication in just 142 words by the President of the United States, there are other things besides social media that are being shaped up by the Trump regime. The world is experiencing the change in decades old relationship and policy put-forth by the Americans- like the phone call to Taiwan, and the after effects. Below are ten things in the world that are on the verge of change but because of the inconsistency and unpredictability of the POTUS, no one knows when or how.
10. NATO shake-up
Members of the NATO alliance (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) were required to spend at-least 2% of the GDP on defense. Out of the 27 member states, only five are currently meeting the requirement namely, US, UK, Croatia, Greece and Poland. The Defense Secretary James Mattis personally traveled to Brussels the capital of NATO) to deliver the message of his boss. Mr. Trump has been loudly disapproving of the NATO and while he disapproves almost every alliance that passes his seeing, this one could just be a voice of the Americans that brought him to power. Generally, the population seems sick of being hated all over the world and wants to shed off the responsibility of being the “policeman of the world”.
Previously Mr. Mattis had hailed the NATO alliance by calling it a “fundamental bedrock” of trans-Atlantic cooperation.
9. The world moving to bi-polarity
With China emerging on the horizon as a superpower, many analysts speculated that the world might be moving towards a direction where China assumes the place currently occupied by the U.S. Although China’s One-Belt-One-Road initiative seems to pave the way for granting China the position that it deserves in the global political arena, achieving that level up to uni-polarity is yet a few decades away. Mr.Trump’s despise of the Trans Pacific Partnership and his scoff at NAFTA has only increased the pace with which China moves towards its greater goal. The demise of the Trans Pacific Partnership cleared the way for China’s own Regional Economic Cooperation, strengthening its position in the Pacific maritime trade. CPEC, the flagship project of China has already begun and expected to complete by 2030 completely. It has shifted the world’s focus towards South Asia, rendering it an economic hub and centre of the geo economical analysis.
8. Cosier ties with Russia
We have had a good laugh over Mr. Trump cosying ties with Russia while at the same time that he alleges Vladimir Putin of meddling with the U.S elections. Donald Trump has always claimed that he is more popular than Hillary Clinton and the excess of 250,000 popular votes of Mrs.Clinton over Mr.Trump was nothing but a result of Russian interference with the system. U.S and Russian relations have been strained during Obama’s regime over key issues like Syria and cyber-hacking but Mr.Trump has indicated that he may start trusting off Mr. Putin (as well as Angela Merkel, the German Vice Chancellor). Whether this lasts long or “may not last long at all” is something we would all like to see.
7. Free Trade Turmoil
There has always been strong opposition to free trade by the public which believes that it is the major factor behind unemployment. On his first day in office, Donald Trump sacked the Trans-Pacific Partnership that covered 40% of the world’s trade output. It was an initiative taken by President Obama in his attempt to create a pivot-to-China. Obama viewed the TPP as not just a facilitator of trade, but also as a means to keep check on the rising influence of China in the region. He aimed towards controlling China’s impact on world trade and prevent the translation of China’s economic power into political power- something that Trump either chooses to ignore or appears oblivious to. Mr.Trump aims to slash NAFTA that allows 65% of American manufactured goods to be consumed within Canada, America and Mexico, and has threatened car companies with a tariff of 35% should they move their manufacturing out of U.S. Similar notions like a 40% tariff on Chinese goods for example, seem to have been made without much speculation because even if Mr.Trump succeeds in manufacturing coming back to U.S, it might not bring back employment due to imminent high automation of industry.
6. One China Policy
Mr.Trump has had a history of redressing his statements that includes his attitude with China. Decades old US protocol was broken by Donald Trump when he made a call to the Taiwanese President Tsai, earlier in February 2017. It was perceived as nothing short of defying the “One China Policy” that had been endorsed by previous American Presidents. Now the POTUS has resorted to endorsing the “One China Policy” after volatile diplomatic exchange during the past two months or so. This has been taken positively by China in return. Mr. Trump’s new policy seems to address all Chinese issues with pragmatism. China is an 800 million people bourgeois market for many manufacturing and servicing giants of America such an Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Trump believes that “bilateral relations can be pushed to a historic new high”.
5. Iran sanctions
Iran is a key player in the Middle East where Benjamin Netanyahu has gone as far as stating that Iran is the biggest terrorist of all and responsible for the unrest in the region. The Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia Al-Adil has shared similar views and endorsed the call for further sanctions on Iran.
As the Trump presidency began, it started off with tension between Iran and the U.S where the U.S placed even more sanctions on Iran regarding its nuclear program. While Mr. Trump has previously stated that “dismantling the deal would be his priority” he is now quiet about what he plans to do. He believes that it was the worst of deals ever negotiated.
4. North Korea and its nuclear program
Mr. Trump has previously tweeted that the U.S is burdened with protecting Japan and South Korea so both countries should consider getting their own nukes. This tweet took majority of the analysts aback and their belief that Trump lacks the necessary diplomacy skills to reach out to other countries was endorsed. While the world talks about safety, non-proliferation, future generations and co-existence- Mr.Trump encourages nuclear capability. North Korea- the rogue nation- has already been testing its nuclear technology and controlling its ambitions is something that Trump will have to deal with. Not doing so will change the dynamics of South China Sea.
3. The Climate
The Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 was a landmark deal signed between various countries regarding cutting of carbon dioxide emissions to which India, US and China are notoriously contributing. However, Mr. Trump and his cabinet have been backers of deregulation which they believe is necessary to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. The world can expect more pollution as the deal is sacked by the White House.
2. Women empowerment and role in politics
While Hillary Clinton might have lost the elections, she had a popular vote lead of 250,000. This shows that the first woman to run for the presidential office was welcomed by the masses and the fact might have shattered the ceiling for those women who aim to enter politics. Hitherto, the number even in the U.S had been low. This seems to have changed with the elections of November, 2016.
1. Islamophobia and isolationism
Mr. Trump’s latest includes an immigration ban that targets Muslims from seven countries. This move seems to have increased sensationalism in 70% of the Americans that know Muslims through T.V. Fulfilling one of his campaign promises, Mr. Trump’s border wall is bringing back memories of the Berlin Wall- that is something that many of us want to forget about. The Chinese initiative of the OBOR talks about benefiting the whole world, their policies concern the future generations w.r.t climate change and deny the use of military as the means to exercise foreign policy. Trump’s policies of isolationism and the propaganda related to Muslims will shift the respect of the masses towards a more reasonable potential world leader- China.
The POTUS tweets say so much but they reveal so little. He has remained adamant about maintaining his personal Twitter account which although gives him a direct line to the followers, leaves little margin for his advisers to scrutinize words in terms of diplomacy. This is especially important on incidences like where the words “terrific guy” and “terrific people” are perceived as “friendly” in a nation that is bleeding with wounds given by the U.S either directly or through proxies.